Saint Peter's

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	251.0
Current RPI:	251
Expected SOS:	282
Current SOS:	282
Current Record:	14-18
Expected Record:	14-18
Current Conf Record:	8-13
Expected Conf Record:	8-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-6
Current OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC RPI:	226
Expected OOC SOS:	339

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-18	251.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Saint Peter's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	La Salle (202.0)	A10	A	61-40	L	0%
11-13	Northwestern (168.0)	B10	A	75-66	L	0%
11-18	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	N	70-61	W	100%
11-19	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	N	49-54	L	0%
11-26	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	A	82-86	W	100%
11-29	Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)	NEC	H	77-53	W	100%
12-2	Elon (205.0)	CAA	A	71-65	L	0%
12-6	Houston Baptist (345.0)	Slnd	H	76-74	W	100%
12-12	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	A	84-61	L	0%
12-17	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	A	56-71	W	100%
12-23	St. Francis NY (276.0)	NEC	H	71-68	W	100%
12-28	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	A	70-61	L	0%
12-31	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	H	77-64	W	100%
1-5	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	A	73-69	L	0%
1-7	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	H	84-58	W	100%
1-12	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	A	70-58	L	0%
1-14	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	A	73-70	L	0%
1-18	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	H	84-88	L	0%
1-21	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	H	57-68	L	0%
1-26	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	A	63-60	L	0%
1-29	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	A	59-57	L	0%
2-2	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	H	58-52	W	100%
2-4	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	H	58-73	L	0%
2-8	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	H	70-66	W	100%
2-10	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	H	77-86	L	0%
2-13	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	A	73-57	L	0%
2-17	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	A	69-51	L	0%
2-23	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	A	43-52	W	100%
2-25	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	H	65-48	W	100%
3-1	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	N	58-60	W	100%
3-2	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	N	55-66	W	100%
3-4	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	N	65-62	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Saint Peter's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Saint Peter's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Saint Peter's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Saint Peter's	MAAC	26.49	26.49	44.78	44.78	-2.77	-2.77
Iona	MAAC	5.55	5.55	56.67	56.67	0.74	0.74
Monmouth	MAAC	5.49	5.49	35.71	35.71	-1.57	-1.57
Rider	MAAC	5.47	5.47	71.43	71.43	2.34	2.34
Canisius	MAAC	4.08	4.08	63.33	63.33	1.09	1.09
Quinnipiac	MAAC	4.06	4.06	38.71	38.71	-0.92	-0.92
Siena	MAAC	3.98	3.98	23.33	23.33	-2.12	-2.12
Niagara	MAAC	3.96	3.96	60.00	60.00	0.79	0.79
Marist	MAAC	3.93	3.93	17.24	17.24	-2.58	-2.58
Fairfield	MAAC	2.74	2.74	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	2.62	2.62	43.33	43.33	-0.35	-0.35
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	1.83	1.83	39.29	39.29	-0.39	-0.39
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	1.80	1.80	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
Sacred Heart	NEC	1.77	1.77	31.03	31.03	-0.67	-0.67
St. Francis NY	NEC	1.76	1.76	39.29	39.29	-0.38	-0.38
Seton Hall	BE	1.69	1.69	64.52	64.52	0.49	0.49
Lafayette	Pat	1.64	1.64	31.03	31.03	-0.62	-0.62
La Salle	A10	1.61	1.61	38.71	38.71	-0.36	-0.36
Northwestern	B10	1.61	1.61	43.33	43.33	-0.22	-0.22
Elon	CAA	1.61	1.61	37.93	37.93	-0.39	-0.39
South Alabama	SB	1.59	1.59	37.93	37.93	-0.38	-0.38
Houston Baptist	Slnd	1.56	1.56	11.11	11.11	-1.22	-1.22
Robert Morris	NEC	0.38	0.38	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.35	0.35	70.00	70.00	0.14	0.14
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.28	0.28	57.14	57.14	0.04	0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.28	0.28	60.00	60.00	0.06	0.06
Holy Cross	Pat	0.27	0.27	38.71	38.71	-0.06	-0.06
Bryant	NEC	0.26	0.26	9.68	9.68	-0.21	-0.21
Albany	AE	0.24	0.24	67.74	67.74	0.09	0.09
Army	Pat	0.23	0.23	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Lehigh	Pat	0.23	0.23	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.23	0.23	37.50	37.50	-0.06	-0.06
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.21	0.21	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.21	0.21	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.20	0.20	73.53	73.53	0.09	0.09
Hartford	AE	0.20	0.20	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.18	0.18	61.76	61.76	0.04	0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.18	0.18	61.76	61.76	0.04	0.04
Brown	Ivy	0.17	0.17	38.46	38.46	-0.04	-0.04
NJIT	ASun	0.17	0.17	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.17	0.17	78.12	78.12	0.10	0.10
Massachusetts	A10	0.17	0.17	39.39	39.39	-0.04	-0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.15	0.15	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Penn	Ivy	0.15	0.15	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
Yale	Ivy	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.15	0.15	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.14	0.14	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Princeton	Ivy	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.12	0.12	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Xavier	BE	0.12	0.12	84.85	84.85	0.09	0.09
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.12	0.12	23.08	23.08	-0.07	-0.07
Texas St.	SB	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
College of Charleston	CAA	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
UMass Lowell	AE	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.10	0.10	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Vermont	AE	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Navy	Pat	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
American	Pat	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Boston University	Pat	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
Cornell	Ivy	0.07	0.07	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Creighton	BE	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	BE	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
BYU	WCC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	26.92	26.92	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Davidson	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Mercer	SC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01